The trial in New York, world conflicts and the US economy are variables that can greatly impact the race for the White House, when the two candidates have a narrow gap in the survey.

US President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump will fight again in November, when the two candidates have both achieved the necessary number of delegates to receive nominations from the Democratic and Republican parties.

This year’s race takes place in the context of many unpredictable developments in the world and within the US.

According to the average poll results compiled by RealClearPolitics on May 6, Mr. Trump received 46.1% support, Mr. Biden’s rate was 44.9%.

Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are both facing a series of unique challenges.

US President Joe Biden (left) and former president Donald Trump.

The two candidates both made American voters worried about their health.

President Biden in February went to Walter Reed Military Medical Center near Washington, DC for an annual health check and left after 2.5 hours.

`The President is still healthy enough to do his job and fully carry out all his responsibilities without any exceptions or adjustments,` said White House doctor Kevin O’Connor.

Mr. Trump’s doctor Bruce Aronwald in November 2023 concluded that the former president was in excellent health and had `excellent results` on cognitive tests.

However, observers still believe that a medical situation forcing one or both candidates to leave the race is not impossible.

The second factor is conflict in the world, with two notable ongoing wars: Russia – Ukraine and Israel – Hamas.

President Biden’s administration’s effort to provide additional aid to Ukraine was blocked by Republicans in the House of Representatives for months, before being approved late last month.

Critics also launched a campaign to choose `not to vote for any candidate` in the Democratic primary elections in the states to express their opposition.

Additionally, if the conflict spreads, such as Iran becoming more involved in the Israel-Hamas hostilities, the United States may need to intervene.

Variables that could turn the race for the White House

US President Joe Biden at an event in Sturtevant, Wisconsin on May 8.

The economy can become a hindrance to Mr. Biden.

If the US economy declines, it will be difficult for the White House owner to convince voters with an economic message.

Third-party presidential candidates are also unpredictable variables, although they usually receive no more than 10% of support.

The Democratic National Committee this year created a group to respond to third-party and independent candidates.

Mr. Kennedy Jr.

In addition to Kennedy Jr., this year’s race also includes independent candidates Cornel West and Jill Stein from the Green Party.

A third candidate can siphon off votes from candidates from both political parties.

Variables that could turn the race for the White House

Former President Donald Trump at Manhattan criminal court, New York on May 7.

The trial of Mr. Trump in New York for falsifying business records to pay for unfavorable information during his 2016 election campaign is also a notable factor.

If Trump is found innocent, he will have more motivation to prove that the charges against him are politically motivated.

A poll by Yahoo News and YouGov in mid-April showed that 57% of Americans considered `falsifying business records to conceal payment to a porn star` to be a serious crime.

A CNN and SSRS Opinion Panel poll at the end of April showed that about three-quarters of Trump supporters said they would stick with him even if he was convicted.

`The Manhattan case will end before election day. If convicted, will he be alienated by independent voters? Maybe,` said Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ, a website specializing in